The Crude Supply Risk dataset captures the price influence of changes in oil supply on a weekly basis. Factors are assessed on the country level: a positive score indicates a bullish supply impact on price, whereas a negative score indicates a bearish impact. The absolute value of the score is an indicator of the magnitude of the impact. The global price risk index is an aggregate of country-level risk scores, weighted by the country’s share of global crude and condensate capacity.

The global price risk index is comprised of six factors:

• Political Violence score measures the likelihood of state failure, civil war, coups and coup attempts, revolution and/or public unrest, and terrorism in a country, based on recent history and current dynamics
• Geopolitical Risk score measures the degree to which a country is vulnerable to the threat of external war or conflict with its neighbors, as well as risks emanating from broader geopolitical tensions including sanctions and/or reputational risk
• Export Risk score is an assessment of constraints on the export of oil
• Facility and Personnel Violence score assesses the presence of various threats to both energy company personnel and facilities
• Ministerial/Policy Volatility score measures the risk of frequent or unpredictable changes in government policies and/or sector leadership affecting oil production and/or exports
• Labor Unrest measures the risk of changes to work force